On commitment

Your life is only bad if you can't commit to things, and we have a crisis of commitment in modernity

Ceiling of the Sistine chapel, a marvel that took commitment many in modernity do not understand

I hear a common refrain all the time, that, and I quote, “it’s too late” to start a podcast, a blog, a YouTube channel, an investment account, a startup. The answer is usually something like too many people are already doing that, or ‘the market is overcrowded’ or simply the opportunity has passed. They’re all so wrong it’s laughable. They don’t understand what the competitive landscape really looks like. And they have no idea how commitment really works, because by their commentary it’s clear they’ve never done it. But maybe we can help some of them today.

There are around two million podcasts in the world. Sounds like an impenetrable market, until you see the drop-off. Around 90% don’t get past episode three, that’s 1.8 million dead shows. Of the 200,000 that remain, 90% quit before episode 20. Another 180,000 gone. Which leaves about 20,000 still standing. To be in the top 1%, all you have to do is publish 21 episodes. At least one critical bar here is simply persistence.

The same is true for blogging. Millions start, full of momentum. Around half never publish a second post. A tenth make it through a year. Maybe 1 in a 100 are still writing after 5. The graveyard of abandoned Substacks and WordPress installs is the best argument for sticking around: if you’re still publishing after a year, you’re competing with a handful, not millions. I’ve been writing since the early days of the blogosphere and can count on both hands the number of friends still here. And, I actually remember all of them who kept at it, unlike people who post to social media where I have no idea if they still publish half the time, because algos don’t show me their work (and email always does). Lots of people actually did commit here, just to a slot machine instead of a compounding mechanism. I still think almost no one understands the difference, even professionals paid 6-7 figures at large companies. When you consider many of them are playing politics and not actually accountable to results, it makes more sense. Committing to the wrong thing is very common, traps abound.

Gym memberships tell a similar story. Every January, millions sign up. Within six months, 50–65% have quit according to industry figures I was able to find. By year’s end, around 80% are gone. Regulars don’t win by outlifting anyone, they win by outlasting them. In the future, even more might quit and simply go the pharmacological route (everyone just wants solutions in a pill, it couldn’t be bleaker). Maybe it’s better than nothing for extreme cases, but I can’t imagine anyone’s body is healthier without movement.

In other parts of the creator economy, the quit rate is still a very reliable filter. Only around 8% of YouTubers and 11% of Twitch streamers make a full-time living. Which sounds brutal, until you realize that means you don’t need to beat everyone. You only need to outlast 9 out of 10.

Philosophers knew this well before the digital age. Nietzsche commented: “everything of the nature of freedom, elegance, boldness… has been acquired through discipline.” Mastery is stubbornness and commitment, refined over time.

Modernity has a commitment crisis, if you are someone who does commit to things you can’t help but see it everywhere. Resumes show job-hopping every 18 months or less is common. Much of this is structural wherein companies refuse to commit to employees, so employees return the favor (or simply leave for better compensation). I think this one ultimately falls on the company side of the trade to work harder to retain people, who will always be rational economic actors. You have to give them a reason to commit. It’s still part of the commitment crisis, whoever is culpable.

The birthrate continues to be low. This is a commitment crisis at the deepest biological level, with many not able to commit to the future by starting or growing a family. It couldn’t be sadder. But it’s also solvable, and it might be the thing that gives you real meaning and sheds your demoralization. We evolved for it, after all.

Even for hobbies, I hear people complain all the time no one has interests any more, few people start bands, not as many pursue serious creative projects long term. Because, attention spans have been wrecked by devices, politics, and infinite distraction. You can’t commit to something important if you’re always chasing cheap dopamine.

All this just means persistence has become a superpower. Doubly so if you can actually do it without substances (which would be a durable commitment, requiring something like amphetamine use is not - you’re just high - and eventually you’ll burn out when they stop working).

In a world of quitters, the act of staying in the game creates an unfair advantage. 21 podcast episodes. 100 blog posts. A decade in the gym. Keeping your startup alive through difficult times.

James Clear who is popular for writing on habits and routine puts it nicely, you don’t even need to read his whole book: “success is the product of daily habits—not once-in-a-lifetime transformations.” The people who make it aren’t necessarily the most talented, they’re simply the ones who didn’t walk away when everyone else did. Maybe that should be seen as part of having talent, too.

So you don’t have to beat an imaged ocean of outlier-talented competitors you are conjuring in your head. You just have to outlast the vast majority who give up. And that’s a far easier battle than most people think, because it’s clear many are too nihilistic to keep going. You don’t have to be.