“I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.”
— Thomas Jefferson
There’s an ever-growing number of doomers and permabears in America. AI doomers, stock market doomers, civilizational doomers, pick your brand. But their fundamental premise that the world is in unstoppable decline remains wholly untrue. The problem isn’t their concern for the state of modernity. That’s understandable, even healthy in moderation. The problem is their permanent state of despair, pathological inability to see beyond an election cycle and allergic reaction to optimism and the infinite American spirit. They’re simply depressed, it’s always the worst of times, never the best.

We’ve entered an era where every election cycle or cultural shift creates a new batch of doomers. When one party wins, some percentage of the other decides civilization itself is over. It’s sad and somewhat childish to act this way. Meanwhile, not only is inflation down and egg prices recently dropped, but there’s a larger reality, no matter your party: America is the only game in town. Where else are you going to go? Europe? A regulatory mess. China? Good luck picking companies that won’t get rug-pulled by state intervention or are a house of cards (and enjoy having a social credit score). Emerging markets might show promise, but we’ve already compounded so far ahead.
Sitting out and clutching pearls is not an option. The best course of action has always been the same: keep buying unsexy index funds at a regular interval, do great work for your company, connect and socialize with fellow citizens, have kids, rescue dogs, volunteer. If the news makes you anxious, turn it off. Simple.
There’s an odd phenomenon where people who otherwise understand the cyclical nature of markets, politics and culture suddenly have become amnesiacs about the broad trajectory of American dynamism. They start to pattern match all of life and external events to negativity, forgetting progress is a sine wave, not a straight line. The idea everything is either in a permanent ascent or terminal decline is the mistake of both permabulls and permabears. This kind of thinking leads to bad trades, poor decisions, unhealthy personal philosophies.
Note how doomers never actually create anything other than sell fear in the form of newsletters or clickbait posts. It’s not like any of these guys start companies or invent things, how could they? They’d never make it. Why would anyone want to be like them? There’s no real historic heroes that were permabears, as it turns out they’re always wrong. We are still here. On some level this is why they’re depressed, to feel good about the future you have to help make it.
Anyway, there’s countless examples of doomer prognostication many believed at the time, but didn’t pan out. A few big ones include:
In The Population Bomb (1968), Paul Ehrlich predicted mass starvation and societal collapse due to overpopulation, since then, birth rates have started to decrease in many parts of the world, leading to concerns about population decline rather than explosion.
In the 1970s, many experts predicted global oil production would peak and decline, leading to severe shortages. Instead, technological advancements unlocked vast new reserves, keeping supply strong.
Throughout the mid-20th century, many Western intellectuals and policymakers feared the Soviet Union’s planned economy would surpass the US, but internal stagnation, economic inefficiencies, and political instability led to its collapse in 1991. Related we’re watching The Americans right now, it’s really good you should add it to your list.
Leading up to the year 2000, experts warned a global computer meltdown would cause widespread chaos due to the "millennium bug." Governments and businesses spent billions preparing, but when the clock struck midnight, disruptions were minimal.
Doom spreads, it’s a hack into our humanity many exploit, and thanks to the internet we’ve poured kerosene on it. But doomers are forever spectators, not participants. They consume or amplify catastrophe like it’s entertainment, feeding on their own anxiety while warning everyone else the world is ending. It’s a negative life spiral you shouldn’t get on. If these people truly believed their own rhetoric, they’d be preparing accordingly: moving off-grid, stocking up on canned goods and ammunition. But they don’t. Because on some level, even they know it’s performative.
There is no situation where a single election, policy, shift in vibes of one party determines the fate of this nation. America is far too complex, too decentralized, too stubborn to go out like that. There are forces at play far larger than anyone’s personal political leanings. You don’t have to agree with them, because you’re free to believe anything here, but this is the water in which we swim. In America, everyone leads an incredibly blessed life, so good doomers can even make a living shilling fear. Our allied nations of Canada, UK, parts of EU, even Australia are in actual spiritual crisis in comparison.
I’m not asking you to remain ignorant, I’m asking you not to get sucked in to the cult of doom and depression. These things are choices. Don’t tune out the world and its problems and of course be aware of things. But don’t let your sense of self be dictated by the mental illness of doomer hysteria. The best thing you can do is not just survive, but thrive: work hard, invest wisely, remain adaptable. While doomers waste their time catastrophizing, the rest of us will be busy fixing and building.
I’m also convinced the vast majority of doomers simply need to go to the gym, sleep better, remove toxins from their diet, deal with substance abuse issues. It’s hard to think anyone who walks around thinking it’s all going to end isn’t also pattern matching their mind to an unhealthy life. Anyway, we hope they get therapy.
Everything is actually amazing, hopefully you’re not one of the people that’s unhappy.
My hypothesis is that many doomers have unaddressed trauma. "Catastrophic thinking" is actually a symptom of PTSD.
I think R. Buckminster Fuller had it wrong when he wrote his book "Utopia or Oblivion." Both are two binary extremes, and I think both are wrong. We are no more all going to be elevated to some pure utopian situation anymore than we are all going to die and become zombies in some nuclear apocalypse. Both are fantasies. Yet, I still believe we've already hit peak oil...
That's why we had to move to things like fracking, because all (or a lot) of the other oil that was easier to get had already been gotten. Otherwise, why put more resources, into extracting less resources? That's where we've gotten in our extraction of something with just a finite supply that our societies energy system is based on...
Limits are something that give beauty and shape to things, and there are real Limits to Growth. That book got it right, in my opinion. But it is true, that just because civilizations and nations rises and fall, and have their own life span in the same way that a person grows, matures, and then dies, doesn't mean you have to give in to utter doom. If your own mortality doesn't cause you to always be in a state of despair (it might for the transhumanist, Ray Kurzweil crowd), and if you can still be optimistic knowing there will eventually be a shuffling off of this mortal coil, then I think the same is true about the things doomers are worried about. Many of which they have at least some reason to be worried about. You can accept the reality of the problems and issues in our civilization though, and still cultivate humor and optimism. Even if you think, as I do, that industrial civilization and the cult of infinite progress itself has a limited life span.